Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Storm NIKA is expected to continue moving rapidly west to west-northwest over the next 24 hours and could intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm by tomorrow afternoon. Early Monday morning, the storm is forecast to turn northwestward, making landfall along the Aurora-Isabela area in the afternoon with peak winds of 110 kph. After landfall, Nika will quickly traverse Northern Luzon throughout the afternoon and evening of Monday, November 11.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.6°N 130.5°E)
• Distance 1:  690 km E of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  795 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  925 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora

• Along Aurora-Isabela Area on Monday noontime or afternoon (Nov 11), with High Strike Probability of 70 to 90%.

• Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Northern Quezon, Coastal Camarines Norte, Partido District, and Catanduanes (beginning Sunday Afternoon to Monday Afternoon).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm as it starts to turn WNW while over the Philippine Sea,…about 210 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Nov 10: 15.1°N 125.8°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a 110-kph STS as it makes landfall over Northern Aurora…about 40 km SSE of Cauayan City, Isabela  [2PM Nov 11: 16.6°N 122.0°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM  
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 230 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  [2PM Nov 12: 18.4°N 118.4°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (500 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.