Typhoon MARCE (YINXING) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon MARCE is expected to make landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan between 12:00 and 2:00 PM today. It will move along the coastal areas of northwestern Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos through the night, emerging along the west coast of Ilocos Norte by early Friday morning as a weakened Category 3 typhoon. By Friday afternoon, MARCE will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while maintaining a westerly track. By Saturday morning (Nov 9), it will be over the South China Sea and will begin to weaken.

• Location of Center/Eye: Approaching the shoreline of Northern Cagayan (near 18.5°N 122.9°E)
• Distance 1:  130 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  185 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  495 km NNE of Metro Manila

• Along Northern Cagayan-Babuyan Group of Islands-Apayao-Ilocos Norte on Thursday Noon through Early Friday morning (Nov 7-8), with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Provinces (11 AM today to 11 AM Fri).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern Cagayan & Babuyan Group of Islands  (5 AM to 11 PM today)
• Coastal Areas of Apayao  (5 PM to 11 PM today)
• Ilocos Norte  (6 PM today to 2 AM Fri)

• Coastal areas and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 3 typhoon, after traversing Extreme Northern Luzon, emerges over the west coast of Ilocos Norte…about 25 km WNW of Laoag City  [2AM Nov 08: 18.3°N 120.4°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the PAR as it moves westward across the South China Sea…about 475 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  [2AM Nov 09: 18.5°N 116.0°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH  
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Slows down while over the South China Sea, as it encounters strong surge of the NE Monsoon, weakens to a Category 2 typhoon…about 355 km S of Hong Kong  [2AM Nov 10: 19.2°N 114.1°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  942 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (530 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  155 km outward from the center.