Typhoon MARCE (YINXING) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon MARCE is expected to continue strengthening over the next 24 hours, potentially reaching a peak intensity of 195 km/h (Category 3). A steering ridge to its north and another deep ridge to its west will guide the typhoon on a westward path, crossing the northern coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. The core of Marce is forecast to pass over or very near Northern Cagayan by Thursday afternoon, then move through Apayao and Ilocos Norte from Thursday evening into early Friday morning (Nov 8). By Friday afternoon, the typhoon will begin to accelerate and weaken as it moves into the West Philippine Sea, approaching the northwestern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Tropical storm to typhoon conditions are expected to reach the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte within the next 12 to 36 hours. Please take all necessary precautions.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southeastern edge of the Balintang Channel (near 18.1°N 124.3°E)
• Distance 1:  230 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  280 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  525 km NE of Metro Manila

• Along Northern Cagayan-Babuyan Group of Islands-Apayao-Ilocos Norte on Thursday afternoon through Friday morning (Nov 7-8), with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Provinces (8 PM today to 8 PM Thu).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern Cagayan & Babuyan Group of Islands  (5 AM to 11 PM Thu)
• Coastal Areas of Apayao  (5 PM to 11 PM Thu)
• Ilocos Norte  (6 PM Thu to 2 AM Fri)

• Coastal areas and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak intensity of 195 kph as it passes over or very close to Palaui Island…about 15 km NNW of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Nov 07: 18.6°N 122.1°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: On a weakening trend…accelerates W to WSW across the West Philippine Sea after crossing the coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and Apayao…about 230 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  [2PM Nov 08: 18.2°N 118.3°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH  
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves westward across the South China Sea…about 420 km SSE of Hong Kong  [2PM Nov 09: 18.7°N 115.0°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  962 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (455 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  110 km outward from the center.