Typhoon MARCE (YINXING) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon MARCE is expected to continue strengthening over the next 24 hours, potentially reaching a peak intensity of 195 km/h (Category 3). A developing steering ridge near Hainan will guide the typhoon westward, crossing the Balintang Channel. The core of MARCE is forecast to pass over or very close to the Northern Cagayan Islands of Camiguin and Fuego on Thursday evening through early Friday morning (Nov 8). Typhoon conditions are anticipated to reach the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte within the next 36 to 48 hours.  Please take all necessary precautions.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southwestern edge of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.1°N 124.7°E)
• Distance 1:  270 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  325 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  550 km NE of Metro Manila

• Along Northern Cagayan-Babuyan Group of Islands-Apayao-Ilocos Norte on Thursday evening through Friday morning (Nov 7-8), with High Strike Probability of 80 to >90%.

• Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte (11 AM today to 11 AM Thu).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Coastal areas and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY MORNING: Reaches its peak intensity at Category 3 as it moves almost westward closer to the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan…about 90 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM Nov 07: 18.7°N 123.0°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, near the coastal waters of Ilocos Norte, weakens to Category 2…about 100 km NW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte  [8AM Nov 08: 18.7°N 119.8°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH  
• SATURDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves across the South China Sea…about 435 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  [8AM Nov 09: 18.9°N 116.5°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  968 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (600 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (550 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  55 km outward from the center.