Typhoon LEON (KONG-REY) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: Typhoon LEON is expected to track generally northwest throughout the day, with its core beginning to depart Batanes. The typhoon is forecast to make landfall this afternoon over Taitung County, then move quickly across southern Taiwan tonight. Rapid weakening is anticipated this afternoon as LEON emerges over the Taiwan Strait later tonight. Heavy to torrential rains and strong gusty winds are expected across Cagayan Valley, Ilocos, Kalinga, and Apayao tonight and tomorrow, posing risks of flooding, storm surges, and landslides. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the eastern part of Bashi Channel (near 20.7°N 123.1°E)
• Distance 1:  115 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  265 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  715 km north-northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• Cagayan Valley Region, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, Kalinga, & Apayao.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern Cagayan, Babuyan & Batanes Island Group ~ tonight until tomorrow, Thursday morning (Oct 31).

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley Region.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY EVENING: Weakens rapidly after crossing the central mountain range of Taiwan, emerges over the Taiwan Strait as it exits the PAR…about 70 km WSW of Taichung, Taiwan  [8PM Oct 31: 23.8°N 120.1°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• FRIDAY EVENING: Recurves towards the northeast as it starts transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone (XT) while over Zhejiang Province (China)…about 280 km S of Metropolitan Shanghai, China  [8PM Nov 01: 28.7°N 121.7°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 420 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  934 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,005 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,200 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  240 km outward from the center.