Super Typhoon LEON (KONG-REY) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: Super Typhoon LEON is expected to track generally northwest over the next two days, with its core passing very close to Batan and Itbayat Islands late tonight or just after midnight. The forecast indicates steady intensification through early evening, reaching peak winds of 250 km/h. By tomorrow morning, LEON is expected to weaken as it nears the coastal areas of Southern Taiwan. It is projected to cross Southern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, making landfall in southern Taitung County. Heavy to torrential rains and strong winds are expected across Cagayan Valley, Ilocos, Kalinga, and Apayao today, posing risks of flooding, storm surges, and landslides. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Approaching the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel (near 19.4°N 124.6°E)
• Distance 1:  275 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  295 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3:  655 km northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• Cagayan Valley Region, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, Kalinga, & Apayao.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern Cagayan, Babuyan & Batanes Island Group ~ today until Thursday morning (Oct 31).

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley Region.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY MORNING: Starts to weaken after passing very close to Batan & Itbayat Islands.  Approaching the coastal areas of Southern Taiwan…about 115 km NNE of Itbayat, Batanes  [8AM Oct 31: 21.8°N 122.1°E @ 240-300 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens considerably into a Severe Tropical Storm, after crossing Southern Taiwan, exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  Starts to make landfall along the coastal areas of Fujian Province…about 70 km E of Fuzhou City, China  [8AM Nov 01: 26.1°N 120.0°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  926 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (965 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,200 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  210 km outward from the center.