Typhoon LEON (KONG-REY) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon LEON is expected to move northwest, impacting the Eastern Babuyan and Batanes Islands with typhoon conditions starting tomorrow morning. It is likely to strengthen to a Category 4 as it moves into the Balintang and Bashi Channels, passing near Batan and Itbayat Islands by tomorrow evening. By Thursday morning, October 31, LEON will start moving away from Batanes towards Southern Taiwan. Heavy rain and strong winds are anticipated across Cagayan Valley, Ilocos, Kalinga, and Apayao, with risks of flooding, storm surges, and landslides in these areas. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern edge of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.5°N 127.0°E)
• Distance 1:  525 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  620 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3:  715 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• Cagayan Valley Region, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, Kalinga, & Apayao.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern Cagayan, Babuyan & Batanes Island Group ~ beginning Wednesday morning (Oct 30) until Thursday morning (Oct 31).

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley Region.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Rapidly strengthens into a Category 4 Typhoon as it maintains its NW track while entering the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel…about 265 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM Oct 30: 19.4°N 124.5°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• THURSDAY MORNING: Maintains its Category 4 strength after passing very close to Batanes…about 115 km N of Itbayat, Batanes  [8AM Oct 31: 21.8°N 122.0°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.  
• FRIDAY MORNING: Outside of PAR as it makes its second landfall over Fujian Province, China…weakens considerably into a Category 1 typhoon…about 35 km SE of Fuzhou City, China  [8AM Nov 01: 25.8°N 119.5°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  960 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (940 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,060 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  205 km outward from the center.