Severe Tropical Storm LEON (KONG-REY) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: Severe Tropical Storm LEON is expected to track generally west-northwest to northwest, potentially strengthening into a typhoon by late today or early Tuesday morning (October 29). By Wednesday morning, October 30, LEON is forecast to move over the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel, intensifying into a Category 3 typhoon. Its outer and inner rain bands will bring cloudy skies, gusty winds, intermittent torrential rain, and severe thunderstorms to Cagayan over the next two days, heightening the risk of flooding and landslides in the area. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.9°N 128.8°E)
• Distance 1:  590 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  725 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  870 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• Cagayan ~ beginning today.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it starts to turn WNW to NW while over the Philippine Sea,…about 475 km E of Palanan, Isabela [8AM Oct 29: 17.7°N 126.8°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a strong Category 3 Typhoon as it maintains its NW track into the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel…about 275 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan  [8AM Oct 30: 19.0°N 124.7°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.  
• THURSDAY MORNING: Maintains its Category 3 strength as it passes very close to the Batanes Group of Islands…about 55 km NE of Basco, Batanes  [8AM Oct 31: 20.8°N 122.4°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 800 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  986 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,110 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,060 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  55 km outward from the center.