TROPICAL STORM KRISTINE (TRAMI) ADVISORY NO. 03

Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Tuesday, 22 Oct 2024
Next update: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Tuesday, 22 Oct 2024
Current Status & Outlook KRISTINE (TRAMI) becomes a Tropical Storm as it moves slowly westward. Its western rainbands are causing occasional torrential rains, severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds across the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. The risk of flooding and landslides remains high in these areas today.

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Storm KRISTINE is forecasted to move northwest through Wednesday morning and could intensify into a severe tropical storm. By Wednesday evening, it is expected to make landfall in Eastern Isabela and will be near Santiago City, Isabela, by early Thursday morning. The storm is likely to weaken to a tropical storm as it crosses the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon

Where is KRISTINE (TRAMI)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Oct 22…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.2°N 127.9°E)
  • Distance 1:  455 km east of Legazpi City, Albay
  • Distance 2:  510 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3:  755 km east of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 11 kph, towards the Coastal Waters of Northern Luzon.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Eastern Isabela on Wednesday evening, Oct 23 ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm as it moves northwestward across the Central Philippine Sea…about 250 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Oct 23: 15.4°N 126.0°E @ 95-120 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH.
  • THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Northern Luzon and weakens into a Tropical Storm as it moves westward…about 10 km NNW of Santiago City, Isabela  [2AM Oct 24: 16.8°N 121.5°E @ 85-100 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM.  
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 230 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [2AM Oct 25: 17.2°N 118.1°E @ 85-100 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure:  994 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,000 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,120 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.
Disclaimer: Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)

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For more info visit: (http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=TRAMI)

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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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