Tropical Depression KRISTINE Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Depression KRISTINE is forecast to move west to west-northwest through Tuesday afternoon, before accelerating northwestward by Wednesday afternoon. It is expected to intensify into a tropical storm later tonight and strengthen into a Severe Tropical Storm on Wednesday afternoon. The western inner rain bands of KRISTINE will bring cloudy skies, intermittent heavy rains, and severe thunderstorms with gale-force winds of 30-60 kph to the Bicol Region, Quezon, and Eastern Visayas over the next two days. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.2°N 130.3°E)
• Distance 1:  650 km east of Bato, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  770 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  1,015 km east of Metro Manila

• Along Northern Aurora0-Isabela-Cagayan Area on Wednesday evening, Oct 23 ~ with High Strike Probability of 70-80%.

• Bicol Region, Quezon, & Eastern Visayas ~ today through Tuesday evening.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Tropical Storm as it moves northwestward while over the Philippine Sea,…about 330 km ENE of Bato, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 22: 14.3°N 127.3°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm as it starts to move westward across coastal waters of Isabela…about 235 km E of Palanan, Isabela  [2PM Oct 23: 16.9°N 124.6°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.  
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Bakun, Benguet as it weakens into a Tropical Storm while traversing Northern Luzon…about 40 km ENE of San Fernando City, La Union  [2PM Oct 24: 16.8°N 120.7°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  997 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,175 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.