Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to gain more strength upon its approach along the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan later tonight and will maintain its northwesterly track as it moves across the Balintang and Bashi Channels by Saturday morning. The core (eye & eyewall) of this catastrophic super typhoon will pass over or very close to the island of Batan (where the town of Basco is located) between 8 AM to 2 PM tomorrow. Therefore, damaging catastrophic winds with heavy to extreme rainfall and high storm surge are anticipated along these islands tomorrow morning.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.5°N 123.7°E)
• Distance 1: 149 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2: 196 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 377 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes

• Possible “Islandfall” is expected along BATAN ISLAND (Batanes) between 8 to 9 AM tomorrow morning (Sept 11) if it moves a little bit to the right of the forecasted track. The Strike Probability remains High at >90%.

• Northern Cagayan – beginning this Afternoon.
• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Tonight (Sept 11).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning early morning Tomorrow (Sept 11).

• Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – Today until Saturday Evening. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of the Batanes Group, while traversing the Bashi Channel with increased wind strength and Northwesterly track…about 46 km SW of Basco, Batanes [8AM Sept 11: 20.2°N 121.7°E @ 250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns northward as it moves along the shoreline of Eastern Taiwan…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 254 km NNW of Basco, Batanes [8AM Sept 12: 22.7°N 121.3°E @ 195 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 2 TY while over the East China Sea…already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…moving North to NNE-ward across the East China Sea, near the coast of Zhejiang Province (China)…about 209 km NNE of Taipei, Taiwan [8AM Sept 13: 26.8°N 122.3°E @ 160 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 932 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (460 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 85 km outward from the center