Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: TY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to turn more to the northwest at a forward speed of 18 km/hr and will maintain its intensity but is still likely to re-intensify on or before passing over the Batanes Group. The core of the typhoon will pass over or very close to the town of Basco between 6 to 9 AM tomorrow morning. Damaging destructive winds with heavy rainfall and high storm surge are possible beginning early tomorrow morning.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.9°N 124.5°E)
• Distance 1: 267 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 2: 301 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 367 km north of Virac, Catanduanes

• Possible “Islandfall” is expected along BATAN ISLAND (Batanes) between 6 to 9 AM tomorrow morning (Sept 11) – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Northern Cagayan – beginning this Afternoon.
• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Tonight (Sept 11).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning early morning Tomorrow (Sept 11).

• Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – Today until Saturday Evening. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Eastern Balintang Channel, approaching the Bashi Channel & the Batanes Group with little change in strength and track…about 94 km SSE of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 11: 19.7°N 122.3°E @ 220 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to turn north as it moves along the shoreline of Eastern Taiwan…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 241 km NNW of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 12: 22.6°N 121.4°E @ 195 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 2 TY as it exits the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…moving northward across the East China Sea…about 633 km N of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 13: 26.2°N 122.4°E @ 160 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (445 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 125 km outward from the center