Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to re-intensify slightly  and will maintain its west-northwest track across the Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 20 km/hr. The core (eye & eyewall) of this howler is expected to approach the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan by tomorrow afternoon.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.9°N 126.5°E)
• Distance 1: 355 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 528 km east of Baler, Aurora
• Distance 3: 540 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan

• None

• Northern Cagayan – beginning Tomorrow Afternoon (Sept 10).
• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Saturday morning (Sept 11).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Saturday Morning (Sept 11).

• Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – starting Tomorrow until Saturday Evening. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the eastern offshore areas of Northern Cagayan as it intensifies slightly while moving WNW-ward…about 196 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Sept 10: 17.8°N 123.9°E @ 250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 4 STY as it traverses the Balintang & Bashi Channels…passing over or very close to the Batanes Group…about 80 km NNW of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 11: 21.2°N 121.8°E @ 230 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Northern Taiwan as it is about to exit the NW border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 469 km N of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 12: 24.7°N 121.4°E @ 185 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (535 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km outward from the center