Tropical Storm KARDING Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TS KARDING is forecast to intensify further, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by tomorrow early morning while moving westward at an accelerated forward speed of 16 km/hr. The storm remains over the open waters of the Philippine Sea with still no direct effects through tomorrow morning.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 18.0°N 133.0°E)
• Distance 1: 1,145 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 1,131 km east of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3: 1,196 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan

• Along the Eastern Coast Cagayan – between 10 AM to 12 PM Sunday (Sept 25) with High Strike Probability of 65-80%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while accelerating westward across the east-central part of the Philippine Sea…about 811 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Sept 24: 17.9°N 129.8°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches the eastern seaboards of Isabela and Cagayan…about 219 km ENE of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM Sept 25: 17.5°N 124.4°E @ 120 kph]. Later on, the eye forecast to make landfall over Eastern Cagayan on or before 12 noon Sunday and cross Cagayan-Kalinga-Ilocos Sur Area Sunday afternoon until early Sunday Evening.  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)as it maintains its typhoon classification while accelerating rapidly westward across the West Philippine Sea…about 236 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM Sept 26: 18.0°N 118.2°E @ 120 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (485 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Midget (100 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —