Typhoon JULIAN (KRATHON) Final Advisory

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon JULIAN is forecast to track north to north-northeast over the next 24 hours and will re-enter the PAR early Thursday morning (October 3). The storm is expected to make landfall in Southwestern Taiwan by Thursday morning and will weaken rapidly into a Category 1 typhoon after crossing the island’s rugged terrain.

The typhoon’s eastern and southeastern rainbands are expected to clear the Batanes-Calayan Islands and Ilocos Region by tomorrow (October 2).

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Western Part of the Bashi Channel {Outside PAR} (near 21.1°N 119.5°E)
• Distance 1:  190 km south-southwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
• Distance 2:  250 km southwest of Taitung City, Taiwan
• Distance 3:  345 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte

• None

• None

Damaging Winds  (3-sec. wind gusts of >100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Across the coastal and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  or at the PDF version of the latest PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for more details.

• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Moving slowly northward while just outside of the PAR…continues to weaken…about 100 km SW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan  [2PM Oct 02: 22.0°N 119.6°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Re-enters PAR on a NNE track and makes landfall over Southwestern Taiwan, weakens rapidly to a minimal typhoon (Cat 1) while passing traversing the rugged terrain of West-Central Taiwan…about 20 km SE of Taichung City, Taiwan  [2PM Oct 03: 24.0°N 120.8°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly weakens into a Tropical Storm as it emerges over the coastal waters of Northern Taiwan…about 45 km NNW of Taipei City, Taiwan  [2PM Oct 04: 25.4°N 121.4°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 650 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  931 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,050 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,000 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  155 km outward from the center.