Tropical Storm ENTENG (YAGI) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook: TS ENTENG is expected to approach the coastal waters of Northern Aurora in the afternoon and will make landfall over Eastern Isabela tonight. By 2 AM tomorrow, ENTENG is forecast to traverse the rugged terrain of Northern Cagayan, and will emerge in the Balintang Channel tomorrow afternoon. The storm is projected to move westward across the western part of Balintang Channel by Wednesday morning.

The circulation of TS ENTENG, its trough, and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring moderate to intense rainfall and severe thunderstorms across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, the Sulu Archipelago, the rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, today and tomorrow. Residents are advised to take all necessary precautions against flash floods, landslides, and lahars associated with these conditions.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the Coastal Waters of Calaguas Islands  (near 14.8°N 123.1°E)
• Distance 1:  80 km north of Daet, Camarines Norte
• Distance 2:  195 km east-southeast of Baler, Aurora
• Distance 3:  220 km east of Metro Manila

• Over Palanan, Isabela between 7 to 9 PM  Sept 02 (Monday)~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Northern & Central Luzon, CaLaBaRZon & NCR ~ Today until Tomorrow (Sept 02-03).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Traversing Northern Cagayan as a Tropical Storm…about 55 km S of Santa Ana, Cagayan  [2AM Sept 03: 18.0°N 122.1°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the NW coastal waters of Ilocos Norte after crossing Calayan Island, intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm…about 130 km WNW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte  [2AM Sept 04: 19.1°N 119.7°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Slows down as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), becomes a Category 1 Typhoon…about 285 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte  [2AM Sept 05: 18.9°N 118.0°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  994 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (525 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (385 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.