Tropical Storm ENTENG (YAGI) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: TS ENTENG is expected to pass over the coastal waters of Camarines Norte in the next few hours and will come close to the east of the Polillo Islands later this morning. By 8 PM tonight, ENTENG is forecasted to make landfall near Palanan, Isabela, and will traverse the rugged terrain of Northern Cagayan by early Tuesday morning (Sept 03), emerging in the Balintang Channel. The storm is projected to move westward across the coastal waters of Ilocos Norte by Tuesday evening.

The circulation of TS ENTENG, its trough, and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring moderate to intense rainfall and severe thunderstorms across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, the Sulu Archipelago, the rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, today and tomorrow. Residents are advised to take all necessary precautions against flash floods, landslides, and lahars associated with these conditions.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the Coastal Waters of Garchitorena (near 14.1°N 123.6°E)
• Distance 1:  35 km east-northeast of Siruma, Camarines Sur
• Distance 2:  70 km northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  80 km east-northeast of Sipocot, Camarines Sur

• Over Palanan, Isabela between 7 to 9 PM  Sept 02 (Monday)~ with High Strike Probability of 70-80%.

• Bicol Region ~ Tonight until Early Monday (Sept 02).
• Rest of Luzon incl. NCR ~ Monday until Tuesday (Sept 02-03).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EVENING: Makes landfall along Palanan Bay, Isabela  [8PM Sept 02: 17.2°N 122.3°E @ 65-85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY EVENING: Emerges over the western coastal waters of Ilocos Norte after crossing Northern Cagayan, intensifies slightly…about 105 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte  [8PM Sept 03: 18.6°N 119.7°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Turns WNW as it traverses the West Philippine Sea…exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), becomes a Severe Tropical Storm…about 250 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte  [8PM Sept 04: 19.3°N 118.5°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (510 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (385 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.