Typhoon EMONG (CO-MAY) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: EMONG will weaken into a Severe Tropical Storm as it crosses the Ilocos Region, emerging over the Balintang Channel by noon today. By Saturday morning, it is expected to exit the PAR as a weakened Tropical Depression.

Meanwhile, the combined presence of Tropical Cyclones EMONG and DANTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), bringing intermittent light to moderate, and at times heavy to torrential rainfall across the western sections of the country—including MIMAROPA, Western Luzon, Western Visayas, and the western portions of Bicol—today.

• Location of Center/Eye: Offshore area of Bolinao, Pangasinan (near 16.5°N 119.7°E)
• Distance 1:  50 km NW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan
• Distance 2:  85 km NW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
• Distance 3:  140 km SSW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur 

• Somewhere along La Union and Ilocos Sur, between 3 to 5 AM today, Friday July 25 ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Ilocos Region and Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Coastal Areas of Ilocos Provinces, La Union, and Pangasinan ~ Tonight until early Friday morning (Jul 25).

• The coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region, & Western Coastal Areas of Central Luzon.

+Waves of 1 to 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EVENING:  Gradually weakens after crossing Ilocos Region while accelerating NNE across the East Taiwan Sea…about 220 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes  [8PM Jul 25: 22.2°N 123.3°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY EVENING:  Weakens into a Tropical Depression as it passes over Okinawa, outside of PAR…about 665 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan  [8PM Jul 26: 26.9°N 127.9°E @ 55-75 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 325 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  976 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (440 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (610 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  30 km outward from the center.