Tropical Storm EMONG (CO-MAY) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Storm EMONG is expected to make landfall over the Ilocos Region early Friday morning and is likely to peak as a Severe Tropical Storm before landfall. By Friday evening, EMONG will weaken into a minimal Tropical Storm as it accelerates northward over the East Taiwan Sea.

Meanwhile, the combined presence of Tropical Storms EMONG and DANTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), bringing intermittent light to moderate, and at times heavy to torrential rainfall across the western sections of the country—including MIMAROPA, Western Luzon, Western Visayas, and the western portions of Bicol—today and tomorrow.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the West Philippine Sea (near 17.2°N 118.0°E)
• Distance 1:  240 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan
• Distance 2:  260 km WNW of San Fernando City, La Union
• Distance 3:  255 km W of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur 

• Somewhere along La Union and Ilocos Sur, between 11 PM tonight to 1 AM Friday July 25 ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Ilocos Region and Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Coastal Areas of Ilocos Provinces, La Union, and Pangasinan ~ Beginning Thursday afternoon or evening (Jul 24).

• The coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region, & Western Coastal Areas of Central Luzon.

+Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY EVENING:  Intensifies rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm as it approaches the coastal waters of Pangasinan and La Union, turns East to Northeastward…about 60 km NNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [8PM Jul 24: 16.6°N 119.7°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• FRIDAY EVENING:  Accelerates rapidly across the North Philippine Sea, after crossing Ilocos Sur, Kalinga, and Northern Cagayan.  Weakens into a Tropical Storm…about 280 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes  [8PM Jul 25: 22.4°N 123.9°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  992 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (475 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.