Tropical Storm CRISING (WIPHA) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: TS CRISING is forecast to exit the northwestern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning (July 19), and may further intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm as it moves very close to Hong Kong by Sunday morning or afternoon (July 20).

The presence of CRISING will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), bringing occasional light to moderate, and at times heavy to torrential rains across the western sections of the country—including MIMAROPA, Western Mindanao, the Visayas, and Western Luzon—today and continuing through the weekend.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the Eastern Coastal Waters of Northern Cagayan (near 18.2°N 123.5°E)
• Distance 1:  145 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  245 km ESE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
• Distance 3:  480 km NNE of Metro Manila 

• Over Babuyan / Calayan Island, between 8 to 11 PM tonight ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Cagayan Valley, Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes Islands, Ilocos Provinces, La Union, CAR.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the Coastal and Beach Front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

+Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY MORNING:  About to exit the NW border of PAR, maintains its strength and NW movement…about 175 km WNW of Calayan Island, Cagayan  [8AM Jul 19: 20.1°N 120.0°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY MORNING:  Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm, outside of PAR as it approaches the coastal waters of Hong Kong, turns westward…about 130 km ESE of Hong Kong, China  [8AM Jul 20: 22.0°N 115.3°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
  
• MONDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it makes landfall over Western Guangdong, near the Leizhou Peninsula, maintains its westerly track…about 460 km W of Hong Kong, China  [8AM Jul 21: 21.8°N 109.7°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  992 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (690 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (840 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.