Tropical Depression CRISING Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: TD CRISING is expected to continue moving northwest toward Extreme Northern Luzon, possibly passing through the Balintang Channel and over Calayan Island by tomorrow evening (July 18). It is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Storm before traversing the channel. By Saturday evening, CRISING is projected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves in the direction of the Hong Kong area.

The presence of CRISING will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), bringing occasional light to moderate, and at times heavy to torrential rains across the western sections of the country—including MIMAROPA, Western Mindanao, the Visayas, and Western Luzon—starting today and continuing through the weekend.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.3°N 125.6°E)
• Distance 1:  295 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  380 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  525 km ENE of Metro Manila 

• Over Babuyan / Calayan Island, between 8 to 11 PM Friday July 18 ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Cagayan Valley including Aurora and Ilocos Provinces.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the Coastal and Beach Front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EVENING:  Intensifies into a Tropical Storm as it passes over the Babuyan and Calayan Islands, across the Balintang Channel…about 35 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan  [8PM Jul 18: 19.3°N 121.8°E @ 65-85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY EVENING:  Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm, outside of PAR or along the South China Sea…about 315 km WSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan  [8PM Jul 19: 21.3°N 117.6°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
  
• SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it makes landfall very near Hong Kong and Macau…about 75 km SW of Hong Kong, China  [8PM Jul 20: 21.9°N 113.6°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (605 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.