Tropical Depression CRISING Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Depression CRISING is forecast to accelerate west-northwestward towards Extreme Northern Luzon, with a possible landfall over Northern Cagayan by late tomorrow afternoon or evening (Jul 18), and is likely to become a Tropical Storm within the next 12 to 24 hours. Then by tomorrow evening, CRISING will traverse the northern portion of Ilocos Norte, before it moves out into the West Philippine Sea on Saturday morning (Jul 19).

The presence of TS CRISING will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), bringing occasional light to moderate to at times heavy, intense to torrential rainfall across the western sections of country (MiMaRoPa, Western Mindanao, Visayas, and Western Luzon today and through the weekend.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.0°N 128.2°E)
• Distance 1:  435 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  540 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  770 km E of Metro Manila 

• Over Northern Cagayan, between 4 to 8 PM Friday July 18 ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Camarines Provinces, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, Cagayan Valley including Aurora.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY MORNING:  Intensifies into a Tropical Storm as it approaches the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela and Northern Cagayan…about 150 km E of Palanan, Isabela  [8AM Jul 18: 16.8°N 123.8°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY MORNING:  Intensifying further as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 155 km NW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte  [8AM Jul 19: 19.0°N 119.4°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
  
• SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm while outside of PAR, approaching the western coastal waters of Guangdong, China…about 250 km SSE of Hong Kong, China  [8AM Jul 20: 20.4°N 115.2°E @ 55-75 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (570 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.