Severe Tropical Storm CARINA (GAEMI) StormWatch No. 03

CARINA (GAEMI) strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS), while remaining almost stationary over the northwestern edge of the Central Philippine Sea during the past 12 hours.  Its westernmost outer rainbands are now spreading across Cagayan Valley.

Over the next 24 to 36 hours, STS CARINA will start to move northward across the North Philippine Sea, and could become a Typhoon with projected winds of 120 kph on Tuesday morning (July 23).

• Location of Eye/Center: Over the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.9°N 125.6°E)
• Distance 1: 340 km east of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2: 550 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• STS CARINA (GAEMI) is expected to intensify into a minimal, Category 1 Typhoon within the next 36 hours or on Tuesday morning (Jul 23).
• The Day 2 to 4 Forecast now shows a slight bend towards the northwest, passing some 340 km to the ENE of Basco, Batanes on Tuesday evening (Jul 23), and will pass very close or over the Northern Tip of Taiwan on or before noontime on Thursday (Jul 25).
• STS CARINA is forecast to exit the northwestern border of PAR on Thursday morning (Jul 25). 
• PAGASA already raised TC Wind Signal No. 01 over at Brgy. Santa Ana in Cagayan.  Please see the attached PAGASA Wind Signal Graphic.
• The presence of STS CARINA will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), and will bring occasional (“On-&-Off”) monsoon rains with severe thunderstorms across the Western Sections of the country (from Ilocos Region, Western Parts of Central & Southern Luzon, down to MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas, & Zamboanga Peninsula) today until Thursday, Jul 25. 
• The risk of flooding and landslides during the onset of the monsoon will be high.

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.