Tropical Storm CARINA (GAEMI) StormWatch No. 02

CARINA (GAEMI) has intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it maintains its northwesterly track across the Philippine Sea. This system is likely to gain more strength as it moves towards Taiwan-Ishigakijima-Miyakojima Area.

Meanwhile, TD BUTCHOY is already outside of  the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  This depression is no longer a threat to the country, and is forecast to track towards Hainan Island in Southern China.

• Location of Eye/Center: Over the northern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.1°N 127.2°E)
• Distance 1: 550 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 2: 680 km east of Metro Manila

• TS CARINA (GAEMI) is expected to intensify rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm within the next 24 to 36 hours, then into a Typhoon on Monday or Tuesday (Jul 22-23).
• The Day 2 to 4 Forecast shows the system becoming a Typhoon, while passing some 350 km to the east of Extreme Northern Luzon on Monday evening (Jul 22).
• TS CARINA is forecast to exit the northern border of PAR on Wednesday afternoon (Jul 24), after passing Miyako and Ishigaki Islands. 
• The forecast track of TS CARINA will eventually enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), and will bring occasional or “on-&-off” monsoon rains with severe thunderstorms across the Western Sections of the country (from Ilocos Region, Western Part of Central Luzon, down to MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas, & Zamboanga Peninsula) beginning today through Wednesday, Jul 24. 
• The risk of flooding and landslides during the onset of the monsoon will be high.

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.