Tropical Depression CARINA StormWatch No. 01

The broad Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 92W over the Central Philippine Sea, east of Bicol Region – has rapidly developed into a Tropical Depression (TD).  It is now locally named by DOST-PAGASA as “CARINA”.  Initial 5-day forecast shows the system rapidly becoming a full-blown Typhoon on July 22-24 (Mon-Wed) as it passes well to the east of Extreme Northern Luzon, in the general direction of Taiwan-Okinawa Area. The forecast of CARINA remains uncertain and any shift on the track could still happen.

Meanwhile, LPA 91W located over the West Philippine Sea has also developed into a TD and was named locally as “BUTCHOY”.  However, since this system will exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this morning, no storm watches or advisories will be issued by Typhoon2000.  Please refer to DOST_PAGASA for the official bulletins on both of these cyclones.

• Location of Eye/Center: Over the eastern  portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.0°N 131.6°E)
• Distance 1: 805 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 1,150 km east of Metro Manila

• TD CARINA is expected to intensify rapidly into a Tropical Storm/Severe Tropical Storm within the next 24 to 36 hours, while moving northwestward across the Philippine Sea.
• The Day 3 to 4 Forecast shows the system becoming a Typhoon, while roughly passing some 250 km to the east of Extreme Northern Luzon on Monday evening until Tuesday (Jul 22-23). 
• The forecast track of TD CARINA will eventually enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), and will bring occasional or “on-&-off” monsoon rains with severe thunderstorms across the Western Sections of the country (from Ilocos Region, Western Part of Central Luzon, down to MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas, & Zamboanga Peninsula). 
• The risk of flooding and landslides during the onset of the monsoon will be high.

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.