Super Typhoon BISING (SURIGAE) Advisory No. 05

This typhoon is expected to bring occasional rains with severe thunderstorms and gusty winds across Samar and Bicol Provinces today and tomorrow.  

24-hr Outlook: STY BISING (SURIGAE) is forecast to pass well to the east of Catanduanes, more or less 220 km away from the island province by 2:00 AM early tomorrow morning. It is expected to move west-northwestward across the western portion of the Central Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 11 km/hr. This cyclone will therefore weaken to minimal Super Typhoon strength within the next 12 to 24 hours as it undergoes an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.0°N 128.1°E)
• Distance 1: 443 km east of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
• Distance 2: 415 km east of Bato, Catanduanes
• Distance 3: 535 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• None

• Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas – Today & Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Eastern & Northern Catanduanes – Late Tonight until Tomorrow  Morning or Afternoon. 

• Coastal Areas of Eastern Visayas & Bicol Region.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 4 Super Typhoon (STY) as it moves WNW-ward across the western portion of the Central Philippine Sea, near the waters of Eastern Catanduanes…about 221 km ENE of Bato, Catanduaens [2AM Apr 19: 14.1°N 126.3°E @ 250 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further below STY classification, just a strong Category 3 Typhoon (TY) while moving slowly NNW to N across the Central Philippine Sea farther away from Catanduanes…about 256 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Apr 20: 15.5°N 126.0°E @ 205 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its decaying trend, just a Category 2 TY while moving slowly NNW-ward across the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea…about 308 km E of Palanan, Isabela  [2AM Apr 21: 17.1°N 125.3°E @ 175 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 750 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 895 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Medium (895 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Medium (780 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 220 km from the center