Tropical Storm AURING (DUJUAN) Advisory No. 06

24-hr Outlook: TS AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to move northwestward across the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea with an increased forward speed of 15 km/hr. This cyclone is expected to weaken to 75 km/hr by tomorrow morning (Feb 21).

• Location of Center/Eye: Relocated over the southern part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 6.4°N 130.0°E)
• Distance 1: 425 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 2: 454 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
• Distance 3: 505 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur

• Over Siargao-Dinagat Islands, between 1 to 3 PM Sunday, Feb 21 – with High Strike Probability of 70-80%.

• CARAGA REGION – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it accelerates northwestward across the NW Part of the South Philippine Sea…about 320 km ESE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte [2AM Feb 21: 8.5°N 128.1°E @ 75 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Northern Negros, just barely a Tropical Storm (TS) as it weakens further while moving faster westward across the Visayas…about 33 km E of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental [2AM Feb 22: 10.7°N 123.3°E @ 65 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of the Northern Tip of Palawan (El Nido), weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves West to WNW towards the West Philippine Sea…about 31 km NW of El Nido, Palawan  [2AM Feb 23: 11.4°N 119.3°E @ 55 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (665 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center