Tropical Storm AURING (DUJUAN) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: TS AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 06 km/hr. This cyclone is expected to become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) tomorrow.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the mid-central part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 7.1°N 129.8°E)
• Distance 1: 393 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 2: 458 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
• Distance 3: 512 km east-southeast of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte

• Over Siargao-Dinagat Islands, between 1 to 3 PM Sunday, Feb 21 – with High Strike Probability of 70-80%.

• CARAGA & DAVAO REGION – beginning Saturday Afternoon (Feb 20).
• VISAYAS – beginning Sunday (Feb 21).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into an STS while turning slowly WNW-ward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea…about 288 km ENE of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 20: 7.5°N 128.8°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens rapidly into a TS as it makes landfall over Dinagat & Siargao Islands. Accelerates NW to WNW towards Southern Leyte-Northern Cebu Area…about 35 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte [2PM Feb 21: 9.9°N 125.8°E @ 75 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further as it turns westward, passing very near the Southern Coast of Mindoro…about 122 km E of Coron, Palawan  [2PM Feb 22: 12.0°N 121.3°E @ 65 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 700 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (560 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center