Typhoon AGHON (EWINIAR) Advisory No. 10

Good News: The typhoon’s circulation is no longer affecting the Philippines, and all PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals have been lifted.  However, caution is advised for those traveling on ships in the North Philippine Sea due to rough seas.

48-hr Outlook:  AGHON is forecast to regain Category 2 strength with winds of 160 kph within the next 24 hours as it accelerates northeast.  By Wednesday afternoon, the typhoon will exit the PAR and move towards the sea south of Japan.  By Thursday morning, AGHON will begin to weaken and transition into an extratropical cyclone, traveling northeast at 40 kph.

• Location of Center/Eye: Entering the North Philippine Sea (near 17.8°N 124.9°E)
• Distance 1:  280 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2:  300 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  545 km northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies back to Category 2 (160 kph) after encountering moderate upper-level winds, accelerates NE-ward at 34 kph…about 810 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM May 29: 22.5°N 129.5°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 1 typhoon as it moves across unfavorable atmospheric conditions of the Western Pacific Ocean, outside of PAR…about 1,210 km E of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM May 30: 26.7°N 133.5°E @ 130-160 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  972 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (610 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  45 km outward from the center.