Typhoon AGHON (EWINIAR) Advisory No. 08

48-hr Outlook:  Typhoon AGHON is expected to strengthen further as it travels over warm ocean waters (increased Oceanic Heat Content). It will accelerate northeastward across the North Philippine Sea by tomorrow morning. By Wednesday morning (May 29th), Aghon is forecast to continue moving northeast at 30 kph while slightly weakening as it approaches the northeastern edge of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). 

Even though Typhoon AGHON itself is moving away, its outer rainbands will bring cloudy skies with occasional light to moderate rain, including periods of heavy showers, squalls, and possibly even intense downpours and severe thunderstorms to the eastern parts of Central and Northern Luzon today. Residents in these areas are advised to take necessary precautions against potential flooding, landslides, and lahars.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.7°N 122.6°E)
• Distance 1:  80 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 2:  145 km south of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3:  210 km northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies rapidly into a Category 3 Typhoon, moving faster NE-ward across the North Philippine Sea…about 290 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM May 28: 18.2°N 124.9°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: About to exit PAR as it accelerates further northeastward across the North Philippine Sea, weakens slightly…about 865 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM May 29: 22.7°N 130.0°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR, as it moves towards the sea south of Japan, weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 1,155 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM May 30: 27.0°N 132.9°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  965 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (460 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Midget (110 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  55 km outward from the center.