Severe Tropical Storm AGHON (EWINIAR) Advisory No. 07

48-hr Outlook:  Within the next couple of hours, AGHON is forecast to make another landfall over Patnanungan Island as it continues northeastward towards the open waters of the Philippine Sea. By tomorrow afternoon, the storm is expected to rapidly intensify into a Typhoon as it moves across the Central Philippine Sea. By Tuesday afternoon, May 28th, AGHON will be over the North Philippine Sea, increasing its forward speed away from the Philippines while reaching Category 3 typhoon strength with winds of 185 kph. 

The circulation of Severe Tropical Storm Aghon and its associated trough will bring cloudy skies with occasional light to moderate rain, with periods of heavy showers, squalls, and possible intense downpours and severe thunderstorms across Luzon, including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Romblon, Northern Panay, and Marinduque tonight. Residents in these areas are advised to take all necessary precautions against potential flooding, landslides, and lahars associated with this tropical cyclone.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the southern tip of Polillo Island (near 14.6°N 122.0°E)
• Distance 1:  20 km north of Balesin Island, Quezon
• Distance 2:  115 km west-northwest of Daet, Camarines Norte
• Distance 3:  100 km east of Metro Manila

• None.

• Polillo Island Group, Balesin Island, Alabat, & Northwestern Camarines Norte ~ Tonight until Tomorrow evening (Mon, May 27).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Polillo Island Group, & Balesin Island ~ Tonight.

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies rapidly into a Category 2 Typhoon, moving faster NE-ward across the Central Philippine Sea…about 140 km ESE of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2PM May 27: 16.5°N 123.6°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates further northeastward across the North Philippine Sea, becomes a Category 3 Typhoon…about 515 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM May 28: 19.6°N 126.9°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves towards the sea south of Japan, weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon…about 870 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2PM May 29: 23.9°N 131.4°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  989 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (400 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Midget (220 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  30 km outward from the center.