Tropical Storm AGHON (EWINIAR) Advisory No. 06

48-hr Outlook:  AGHON is expected to slowly move north-northeastward across Quezon. By later this afternoon, the storm will likely be near Infanta, Quezon. Later tonight, the center is forecast to emerge over Polillo Strait before passing over the Polillo Islands. As AGHON accelerates northeastward over the Philippine Sea on Monday morning, it will rapidly intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS), moving further away from Luzon. By Tuesday morning, May 28th, AGHON is expected to reach typhoon strength with winds of 140 kph as it races across the North Philippine Sea towards the waters south of Japan. 

The circulation of TS AGHON and its Trough will continue to bring occasional moderate to heavy rain, gusty winds, with possible intense downpours and severe thunderstorms, across Southern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Romblon, Camarines Norte, and Marinduque today & tomorrow. Residents are advised to take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides, and lahars associated with this tropical cyclone.

• Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Mount Banahaw, Quezon (near 14.0°N 121.5°E)
• Distance 1:  15 km west-northwest of Lucena City, Quezon
• Distance 2:  20 km east-southeast of San Pablo City, Laguna
• Distance 3:  80 km southeast of Metro Manila

• None.  System already over land.

• Camarines Norte, Western & Central Camarines Sur, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon including Polillo Island Group, Marinduque, Western Camarines Norte, Mindoro, Aurora, Southern Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Pampanga, & Bataan  ~ Today until Tomorrow Morning (Mon, May 27).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Infanta, Quezon as it intensifies, moving slowly NNE to NE-ward…about 65 km E of Quezon City, NCR [2PM May 26: 14.8°N 121.6°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges back over the Philippine Sea, accelerates northeastward, east of the coastal waters of Aurora, strengthens into an STS…about 100 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM May 27: 15.7°N 122.8°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates northeastward across the North Philippine Sea, intensifies rapidly into a Typhoon (TY)…about 355 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM May 28: 18.4°N 125.5°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates further northeastward across the North Philippine Sea as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), intensifies further…about 870 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM May 29: 22.6°N 130.1°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (490 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.