Tropical Depression AGHON (01W) Advisory No. 05

48-hr Outlook:  AGHON is expected to become a tropical storm just before making landfall along the Lucena-Pagbilao area early tomorrow morning. It will then traverse the eastern side of Mount Banahaw and Tayabas, Quezon, moving slowly north-northwest around mid-morning tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, AGHON will cross Eastern Laguna, passing through the towns of Santa Cruz, Kalayaan, Paete, Pangil, Siniloan, and Santa Maria, before turning northeastward across Infanta, Quezon, late tomorrow afternoon. By tomorrow evening, the depression will emerge over Polillo Strait, passing over the Polillo Island Group, and will start to accelerate and intensify while traversing the Philippine Sea. On Monday afternoon (May 27), AGHON will be well over the Philippine Sea, accelerating further to the east of Isabela as a Severe Tropical Storm. 

The broad circulation of TD AGHON and its Trough will continue to bring occasional moderate to heavy rain, with possible intense downpours and severe thunderstorms, across Southern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Romblon, Camarines Norte, and Marinduque tonight & tomorrow. Residents are advised to take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides, and lahars associated with this tropical cyclone.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern part of Sibuyan Sea (near 12.9°N 122.5°E)
• Distance 1:  45 km northeast of Romblon
• Distance 2:  85 km southeast of Boac, Marinduque
• Distance 3:  150 km southeast of Lucena City, Quezon

• Along Marinduque tonight, between 7 to 9 PM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Along Pagbilao-Lucena City Area early tomorrow morning, between 12 to 2 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon including Polillo Island Group, Marinduque, Western Camarines Norte, Northern Mindoro, Aurora, Southern Nueva Ecija, Southern Tarlac, Bulacan, Pampanga, & Bataan  ~ Tonight through Tomorrow Evening (Sun, May 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Santa Maria, Laguna, becomes a minimal TS as it recurves towards the northeast…about 35 km ESE of Antipolo City, Rizal [2PM May 26: 14.5°N 121.4°E @ 65-85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges back over the Philippine Sea, accelerates northeastward, east of the coastal waters of Isabela, strengthens into an STS…about 120 km E of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2PM May 27: 16.9°N 123.5°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates northeastward across the North Philippine Sea, intensifies rapidly into a Typhoon (TY)…about 510 km E of Basco, Batanes [2PM May 28: 20.3°N 126.9°E @ 130-160 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1003 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (440 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.