Tropical Depression AGHON (01W) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook:  AGHON’s projected path has shifted westward, with landfall now expected over Bondoc Peninsula or Marinduque later tonight. The system is then forecast to traverse Southern Quezon through the towns of Lopez, Gumaca, and Atimonan by midnight or early tomorrow morning. By mid-morning on Sunday, May 26, AGHON is expected to slow down while moving north over Lamon Bay and the Polillo Island Group. During this time, the system is expected to rapidly intensify into a Tropical Storm and then into a Severe Tropical Storm as it accelerates northeastward across the Philippine Sea by Monday, May 27.

The broad circulation of TD AGHON and its Trough will continue to bring occasional moderate to heavy rain, with possible intense downpours and severe thunderstorms, across Southern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Romblon, Camarines Norte, and Marinduque today. Residents are advised to take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides, and lahars associated with this tropical cyclone.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the shores of Baleno, Masbate (near 12.5°N 123.5°E)
• Distance 1:  20 km north-northwest of Masbate City, Masbate
• Distance 2:  135 km east of Romblon
• Distance 3:  200 km east-southeast of Boac, Marinduque

• Along Marinduque-Bondoc Peninsula tonight, between 7 to 9 PM ~ with High Strike Probability of 75-90%.

• Western Masbate, Romblon, Marinduque, Mindoro, Southern Quezon, Camarines Norte, Rest of CaLaBaRZon including Metro Manila ~ Today through Tomorrow Afternoon (Sun, May 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY MORNING: Along the southern shores of Polillo Island Group, becomes a TS while moving northward…about 40 km ESE of Infanta, Quezon [8AM May 26: 14.6°N 122.0°E @ 65-85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• MONDAY MORNING: Starts to recurve towards the northeast, just near the coastal waters of Aurora, strengthens into strong TS…about 115 km SE of Palanan Bay, Isabela [8AM May 27: 16.4°N 123.3°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• TUESDAY MORNING: Accelerates northeastward across the North Philippine Sea, intensifies rapidly into a Typhoon (TY)…about 565 km E of Basco, Batanes [8AM May 28: 20.0°N 127.4°E @ 130-160 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1003 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (400 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.