Tropical Depression AGHON (01W) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: AGHON is expected to maintain its strength as it moves across the Ticao-Masbate area this afternoon. Later this evening, it will likely pass over Ragay Gulf, Burias Island, and the coastal waters of Pasacao, Camarines Sur. By early tomorrow morning, the system is forecast to be near Alabat, Quezon, and will move over Polillo Island in the afternoon. AGHON is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm as it continues northeast across the Philippine Sea by early Monday morning.

Meanwhile, TD AGHON’s broad circulation and its Trough will continue to bring occasional moderate, heavy to intense rainfall with severe thunderstorms across Visayas, Southern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, and parts of Mindanao throughout the weekend. Please take all necessary precautions against floods and landslides including lahars that will be brought about by this tropical cyclone.

• Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Catbalogan City, Samar (near 11.7°N 124.9°E)
• Distance 1:  55 km southeast of Calbayog City, Samar
• Distance 2:  165 km east-southeast of Masbate City, Masbate
• Distance 3:  280 km southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Along Ticao Island or Eastern Masbate today, between 11AM to 2 PM ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Eastern Visayas, Surigao & Dinagat Provinces ~ Today through Tomorrow (Sat, May 25).
• Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon, Mindoro, Romblon, & Metro Manila ~ beginning Tomorrow through Sunday (May 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Alabat, Quezon…about 60 km East of Tayabas, Quezon [2AM May 26: 14.1°N 122.2°E @ 55-75 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges back to sea, near the East Coast of Aurora…about 75 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM May 27: 16.0°N 122.7°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates northeastward across the North Philippine Sea, becomes a Typhoon…about 340 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM May 28: 18.4°N 125.4°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 280 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1004 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (575 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.