Tropical Depression AGHON (93W) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: TD AGHON is forecast to strengthen into a Tropical Storm (TS) before making landfall in Eastern or Southwestern Samar, or Northern Leyte early tomorrow morning. It may pass directly over, or very near, Tacloban City.  AGHON is then expected to emerge over the waters off Western Samar by mid-morning, passing near Catbalogan and Calbayog Cities.  Between the afternoon of May 25th and the early morning of May 26th, Aghon is expected to traverse Ticao Island before making another landfall over southwestern Camarines Sur.  The storm will likely pass over the towns of Balatan, Pasacao, Pamplona, Libmanan, and Sipocot.  

Meanwhile, TD AGHON’s broad circulation and its Trough will continue to bring occasional moderate, heavy to intense rainfall with severe thunderstorms across Visayas, Southern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, and parts of Mindanao throughout the weekend. Please take all necessary precautions against floods and landslides including lahars that will be brought about by this tropical cyclone.

• Location of Center/Eye: Near the coastal waters of Siargao Island (near 9.7°N 127.5°E)
• Distance 1:  160 km east of Siargao Island
• Distance 2:  325 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
• Distance 3:  520 km southeast of Masbate City, Masbate

• Along the Towns of Balangiga & Lawaan, Eastern Samar by early tomorrow morning (May 25), between 2 to 5 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Eastern Visayas, Surigao & Dinagat Provinces ~ Today through Tomorrow (Sat, May 25).
• Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon, Mindoro, Romblon, & Metro Manila ~ beginning Tomorrow through Sunday (May 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Ticao Island…about 40 km NE of Masbate City, Masbate [2PM May 25: 12.6°N 123.8°E @ 65-85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges back to sea, near the East Coast of Polillo Island…about 85 km NNW of Daet, Camarines Norte [2PM May 26: 14.8°N 122.6°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates northeastward across the Philippine Sea, becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 245 km E of Palanan, Isabela [2PM May 27: 17.1°N 124.7°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 200 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1004 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (720 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.