Tropical Depression AGHON (93W) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: TD AGHON is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (TS) and make landfall over Eastern Samar tomorrow morning, and then traverse the area through noontime, then tomorrow afternoon it emerge over the coastal waters of Northern Samar and Eastern Sorsogon.  AGHON will slow down slightly as it turns NNW making another landfall over Catanduanes  during the early morning hours of Sunday (May 26). The forecast strength of this cyclone will be at minimal Tropical Storm (TS) during its passage over these areas or could even weaken to a TD due to land interaction. 

Meanwhile, TD AGHON’s circulation will bring moderate, heavy to intense rainfall with severe thunderstorms across Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao today, extending across Bicol Region and Southern Quezon tomorrow. Again, please take all necessary precautions against floods and landslides including lahars that will be brought about by this tropical cyclone.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern portion of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.7°N 129.2°E)
• Distance 1:  370 km east-southeast of Siargao Island
• Distance 2:  460 km southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
• Distance 3:  770 km southeast of Virac, Catanduanes

• Along Guiuan, Eastern Samar by early tomorrow morning (May 25), between 1 to 3 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Eastern Visayas, Surigao & Dinagat Provinces ~ Today through Tomorrow (Sat, May 25).
• Bicol Region & Southern Quezon ~ beginning Tomorrow through Sunday (May 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Guiuan, Eastern Samar…about 85 km ESE of Tacloban City, Leyte [2AM May 25: 11.0°N 125.7°E @ 65-85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of San Andres, Catanduanes…about 40 km NNW of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM May 26: 13.9°N 124.0°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges back over the Philippine Sea, becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 270 km E of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM May 27: 16.4°N 124.6°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 200 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1004 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (800 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.