Tropical Depression ULYSSES Advisory No. 01

, 2020 Season, TY Ulysses

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ULYSSES ADVISORY NO. 01

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 09 November 2020
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 09 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Depression ULYSSES continues to organize while over the Philippine Sea while maintaining its strength during the past 12 hours. It remains a threat to Bicol Region and Central Luzon.

24-hr Outlook: TD ULYSSES is forecast to move northwestward at a forward speed of 19 km/hr, and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or Tuesday morning.
Where is ULYSSES? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, November 09…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the Southern Part of Central Philippine Sea  (near 11.8°N 131.7°E)
  • Distance 1: 683 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
  • Distance 2: 839 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
  • Distance 3: 944 km east-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 22 kph, across the Central Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Over Polillo Island (Northern Quezon), between 5 to 7 PM Wednesday, Nov 11 – with Medium Strike Probability of 40-50%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TUESDAY MORNING: Attains TS status while over the Central Philippine Sea…about 445 km NE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8AM Nov 10: 13.9°N 128.8°E @ 85 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) as it turns WNW to Westward across western portion of the Central Philippine Sea, passing well to the northeast of Bicol Region…about 201 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8AM Nov 11: 14.9°N 125.8°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • THURSDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Bulacan-Nueva Ecija Area as it traverses westward across Central Luzon…about 24 km SSW of Gapan City, Nueva Ecija  [8AM Nov 12: 15.1°N 120.9°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (670 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

:: NONE ::

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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