Tropical Storm CRISING (WIPHA) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook: TS CRISING is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility this morning and may strengthen into a Severe Tropical Storm as it heads toward Southern China. The storm’s core is on track to pass near or directly over Hong Kong by Sunday afternoon, possibly peaking at 100 kilometers per hour, before weakening over the City of Yangjiang by Sunday evening, July 20.

The presence of CRISING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), bringing occasional light to moderate, and at times heavy to torrential rains across the western sections of the country—including MIMAROPA, Western Visayas, and Western Luzon—tonight and continuing through the weekend.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the Northern Coastal Waters of Calayan Island (near 19.6°N 122.0°E)
• Distance 1:  65 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  215 km NE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
• Distance 3:  570 km N of Metro Manila 

• Now Over Babuyan / Calayan Island ~ with High Strike Probability of 100%.

• Ilocos Provinces, Calayan Island, Kalinga, Apayao.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the Coastal and Beach Front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

+Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EVENING:  Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm as it moves closer to Southern China, turns WNW…about 305 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan  [8PM Jul 19: 21.3°N 117.7°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY EVENING:  Makes landfall over Guangdong, China or in the vicinity of Yangjiang. China, moving westward…about 215 km WSW of Hong Kong, China  [8PM Jul 20: 21.9°N 112.1°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
  
• MONDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves on a WSW track, emerging over the Gulf on Tonkin…about 646 km WSW of Hong Kong, China  [8PM Jul 21: 20.8°N 108.1°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  991 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (815 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (840 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.