Super Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI) Advisory No. 05

36-hr Outlook: The core of Super Typhoon PEPITO will traverse northern Catanduanes, passing through the towns of Viga, Bagamanoc, Caramoran, and Pandan over the next few hours. It will then move along the coastal waters of Caramoan, Garchitorena, and Siruma by midnight Saturday. By 2:00 AM tomorrow, Pepito is expected to be approximately 80–100 km north of Naga City.

Tomorrow afternoon, the typhoon will accelerate and make its second landfall over southern Aurora, crossing the southern portions of Northern Luzon during the evening. It will then emerge over the West Philippine Sea after crossing the Pangasinan-La Union area early Monday morning (November 18).

• Location of Center/Eye: Just along the shoreline of Eastern Catanduanes  (near 13.9°N 124.5°E)
• Distance 1:  30 km E of Viga, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  95 km E of Garchitorena, Catanduanes 
• Distance 3:  150 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Over NORTHERN CATANDUANES between 9 to 10 PM tonight (Nov 16) ~ with High Strike Probability of >90% .

• Northern Samar, Bicol Mainland, & Polillo Island ~ tonight until tomorrow morning.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Catanduanes & Partido District (Camarines Sur) ~ beginning 1 PM Saturday until 11 AM Sunday (Nov 17).

• Coastal, lakes and beachfront areas of Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, and Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Island.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 4 after making landfall over Northern Catanduanes, passing over the coastal waters of Garchitorena-Caramoan Area…about 45 km NE of Siruma, Camarines Sur [2AM Nov 17: 14.3°N 123.6°E @ 240-295 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 3 as it makes landfall over Southern Aurora…about 20 km W of Baler, Aurora  [2PM Nov 17: 15.7°N 121.4°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY AFTERNOON:  Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves westward across the South China Sea…about 380 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  [2PM Nov 18: 18.5°N 116.9°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  923 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (415 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (670 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  130 km outward from the center.