Severe Tropical Storm PEPITO (MAN-YI) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: Severe Tropical Storm PEPITO is forecast to track west to west-northwest over the next 24 hours, rapidly intensifying due to high Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) east of Samar. By Saturday evening, it will approach the coastal waters of Eastern Bicol, passing very close to Catanduanes, and is expected to strengthen into a Category 4 typhoon with 1-minute sustained winds of 230 km/h. *There is a possibility it could become a Super Typhoon.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southeastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.6°N 134.2°E)
• Distance 1:  925 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
• Distance 2:  955 km E of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte 
• Distance 3:  1,240 km ESE of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• None

• Eastern & Northern Samar ~ Saturday (Nov 16).
• Bicol Region (except Masbate) ~ Saturday afternoon (Nov 16) until Sunday noon (Nov 17).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EVENING: Rapidly intensified into a Category 2 typhoon as it moves WNW across the Philippine Sea…about 365 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [8PM Nov 15: 11.8°N 129.0°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifying rapidly to near-Super Typhoon strength, as it passes very close to Catanduanes…about 80 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes [8PM Nov 16: 14.1°N 124.9°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
  
• SUNDAY EVENING:  Weakens as it moves NW along the coastal waters of Northern Catanduanes…about 140 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes  [8PM Nov 17: 16.7°N 121.2°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  993 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (595 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Small (610 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  50 km outward from the center.