Super Typhoon OFEL (USAGI) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: Typhoon OFEL is expected to move across Northern Cagayan this afternoon, passing near Aparri around sunset. By 8 PM, it will reach the Balintang Channel near Fuga Island. On Friday morning, OFEL will shift northward across the Luzon Strait, weakening to a Category 2 typhoon as it passes west of Sabtang Island, Batanes.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Eastern Baggao, Cagayan (near 17.9°N 122.1°E)
• Distance 1:  50 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  70 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  60 km S of Santa Ana, Cagayan

• Over Calayan-Babuyan Island Group by tonight, with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela, Apayao, & Northern Kalinga ~ through tonight.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern Cagayan ~ today until the evening.

• Coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley Region.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY MORNING: Traversing Luzon Strait on a slow northerly track, weakens to a Category 3 typhoon…about 135 km NW of Calayan Island, Cagayan. [8AM Nov 15: 20.2°N 120.6°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Weakens to a Category 1 typhoon as it moves slowly NNE along the Southern Tip of Taiwan  [8AM Nov 16: 21.9°N 121.0°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  949 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (415 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  65 km outward from the center.