Tropical Storm Pre-PEPITO (MAN-YI) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Storm Pre-PEPITO is expected to follow a generally westward track over the next 24 hours before shifting more to the west-northwest. By Saturday morning, it will approach the coastal waters of the Bicol Region and is forecast to rapidly intensify into a Category 4 typhoon, with 1-minute sustained winds reaching 230 km/h.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Yap Island, FSM (near 11.4°N 138.7°E)
• Distance 1:  405 km E of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
• Distance 2:  1,415 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
• Distance 3:  1,700 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• None

• None.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Enters PAR as it moves across the Philippine Sea, rapidly intensifying into a Category 2 typhoon…about 900 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao del Sur [2AM Nov 15: 10.7°N 134.2°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifying rapidly to near-Super Typhoon strength, approaching the coastal waters of Eastern Samar and Eastern Bicol…about 340 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Nov 16: 12.6°N 128.4°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
  
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Weakens as it moves NW along the coastal waters of Northern Catanduanes…about 140 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes  [2AM Nov 16: 15.2°N 124.6°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1001 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (520 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Small (450 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.