Severe Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: Severe Tropical Storm NIKA is expected to continue moving rapidly westward for the next 12 hours and may intensify into a Category 1 Typhoon by this afternoon. By early tomorrow morning, Nika is forecasted to shift west-northwest, passing approximately 200 km north of Naga City, and could strengthen to Category 2 with winds reaching 160 kph. By midday, the storm’s core is projected to make landfall along the Northern Aurora-Isabela area, gradually weakening to 120 kph. After landfall, Nika will quickly cross Northern Luzon through the afternoon and evening. By early Tuesday morning, the core of Nika is expected to emerge over the west coast of Ilocos Sur as a weakened Severe Tropical Storm.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.1°N 127.0°E)
• Distance 1:  345 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  440 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  540 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora

• Along Aurora-Isabela Area on Monday noontime or afternoon (Nov 11), with High Strike Probability of  >90%.

• Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur (beginning today to Monday morning).
  
• Cagayan Valley Region, CAR, Nueva Ecija, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur, and Abra (beginning tomorrow to Tuesday morning)
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern Aurora & Eastern Isabela (beginning 8 AM to 2 PM Tomorrow, Nov 11)

• Coastal waters and beachfront areas Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela and Aurora.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 2 typhoon as it passes well to the north of Bicol Region, and is approaching the coastal areas of Aurora and Isabela…about 190 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Nov 11: 15.7°N 123.8°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a 100-kph severe tropical storm, after traversing Northern Luzon, emerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 100 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  [2AM Nov 12: 17.8°N 119.5°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH  
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves WNW across the South China Sea…about 400 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte  [2AM Nov 13: 18.9°N 116.9°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  990 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (495 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  30 km outward from the center.