Typhoon MARCE (YINXING) Advisory No. 05

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon MARCE is expected to make another landfall over the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte tonight, before moving off the northwestern coast of Ilocos Norte early tomorrow morning (Nov 8). It will likely weaken to a Category 3 typhoon as it crosses the West Philippine Sea, and by tomorrow afternoon, it is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while maintaining its westerly track. By Saturday afternoon (Nov 9), MARCE is expected to re-intensify over the South China Sea.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Aparri, Cagayan (near 18.5°N 121.7°E)
• Distance 1:  25 km NE of Ballesteros, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  95 km E of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
• Distance 3:  120 km ENE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte

• Along Northwestern Cagayan and Ilocos Norte Tonight through Early Friday morning (Nov 08), with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Northwestern Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ilocos Provinces (8 PM tonight to 8 PM Fri).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern & NW Cagayan, Calayan & Babuyan Group of Islands  (tonight until 2 AM Fri)
• Ilocos Norte  (tonight until 4 AM Fri)

• Coastal areas and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 3 typhoon, after traversing Extreme Northern Luzon, and emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it exits the PAR…about 265 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2PM Nov 08: 18.3°N 118.0°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies as it moves westward across the South China Sea…about 395 km S of Hong Kong, China [2PM Nov 09: 18.9°N 114.7°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH 

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  937 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (535 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  120 km outward from the center.