Typhoon MARCE (YINXING) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon MARCE is expected to continue strengthening over the next 24 hours, potentially reaching a peak intensity of 185 kph. The typhoon will slow down throughout the forecast period as it encounters a strong surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan), which is projected to steer it on a west to west-southwest path after 48 hours. Latest water vapor imagery reveals cold, dry air within the monsoon surge moving across the Taiwan Strait and into the West Philippine Sea, which will impact MARCE’s circulation. As a result, a weakening trend is likely on Thursday (Nov 7) as the typhoon approaches the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northernmost portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.4°N 125.7°E)
• Distance 1:  345 km E of Palanan Bay, Isabela
• Distance 2:  395 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  610 km ENE of Metro Manila

• Along Northern Cagayan-Babuyan Group of Islands-Apayao-Ilocos on Thursday evening or Friday morning (Nov 7-8), with High Strike Probability of 70 to >90%.

• Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte (8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM Wednesday).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Coastal areas and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it starts to turn WNW to NW while over the Philippine Sea,…about 270 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Nov 06: 18.6°N 124.7°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a strong Category 3 Typhoon as it maintains its NW track into the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel…about 275 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan  [2PM Nov 07: 19.0°N 123.2°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM  
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its Category 3 strength as it passes very close to the Batanes Group of Islands…about 55 km NE of Basco, Batanes  [2PM Nov 08: 18.7°N 120.1°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  972 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (600 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (610 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  40 km outward from the center.