Tropical Storm KRISTINE (TRAMI) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Storm KRISTINE is expected to accelerate northwestward through Wednesday afternoon, with slight intensification, making landfall over Isabela by Wednesday evening. Early Thursday morning, October 24, KRISTINE will move across Northern Luzon, passing over the provinces of Benguet and La Union, before exiting through western Pangasinan by Thursday afternoon. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Near the coastal waters, east of  Bicol Region (near 14.3°N 126.2°E)
• Distance 1:  215 km east-northeast of Bato, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  335 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  555 km east of Metro Manila

• Along Eastern Isabela on Wednesday evening, Oct 23 ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Bicol Region, Quezon, & Eastern Visayas ~ Tonight through Wednesday morning.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Eastern Luzon, Northern Samar, and Bicol Region.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly as it moves westward towards Northern Luzon…about 135 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Oct 23: 16.4°N 123.5°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly after crossing Northern Luzon, emerging off the west coast of Pangasinan…about 40 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [2PM Oct 24: 16.2°N 119.6°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.  
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 490 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [2PM Oct 25: 17.1°N 115.5°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  990 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,000 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,140 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.