Tropical Storm KRISTINE (TRAMI) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Storm KRISTINE is forecasted to move northwest through Wednesday morning and could intensify into a severe tropical storm. By Wednesday evening, it is expected to make landfall in Eastern Isabela and will be near Santiago City, Isabela, by early Thursday morning. The storm is likely to weaken to a tropical storm as it crosses the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.2°N 127.9°E)
• Distance 1:  455 km east of Legazpi City, Albay
• Distance 2:  510 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  755 km east of Metro Manila

• Along Eastern Isabela on Wednesday evening, Oct 23 ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Bicol Region, Quezon, & Eastern Visayas ~ today through Tuesday evening.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm as it moves northwestward across the Central Philippine Sea…about 250 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Oct 23: 15.4°N 126.0°E @ 95-120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Northern Luzon and weakens into a Tropical Storm as it moves westward…about 10 km NNW of Santiago City, Isabela  [2AM Oct 24: 16.8°N 121.5°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.  
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 230 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [2AM Oct 25: 17.2°N 118.1°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  994 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,000 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,120 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.