Tropical Depression KRISTINE Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Depression KRISTINE is expected to move westward through tomorrow (Tuesday), before shifting northwest to north-northwest on Wednesday. It is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm later today or by Tuesday. The western outer and inner rain bands of KRISTINE will bring cloudy skies, intermittent torrential rains, and severe thunderstorms across the Bicol Region, Quezon, and Eastern Visayas over the next two days, increasing the risk of floods and landslides in these areas. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.8°N 132.5°E)
• Distance 1:  885 km east of Bato, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  1,005 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  1,245 km east of Metro Manila

• Along Isabela-Cagayan Area on Friday, Oct 25 ~ with Low Strike Probability of 30-40%.

• Bicol Region, Quezon, & Eastern Visayas ~ beginning today. 
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm as it starts to turn northwestward while over the Philippine Sea,…about 380 km ENE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8AM Oct 22: 13.2°N 128.2°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm as it moves NNW across the Central Philippine Sea…about 365 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes  [8AM Oct 23: 16.0°N 126.9°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.  
• THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it resumes its WNW to Westerly track towards Cagayan-Isabela Area…approaching the coastal areas of these provinces…about 170 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela  [8AM Oct 24: 17.7°N 123.8°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,120 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.