Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W StormWatch No. 01

A large tropical disturbance, extending from west of Guam to the east of the Philippines, has been tagged as “96W.” It is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 6 to 24 hours and is projected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow, October 21. Once it reaches tropical depression status, it will be locally named “KRISTINE” by PAGASA, becoming the 11th tropical cyclone of the 2024 season. Current forecasts, though with low confidence, suggest it may approach Extreme Northern Luzon by Thursday, October 24.   

In the meantime, the disturbance outermost circulation has begun enhancing the Northeasterly Monsoonal Flow (Amihan) across the eastern sections of Luzon, including the Bicol Region, where intermittent rains and strong winds are expected today and tomorrow.

• Location of Center: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea, outside of PAR  (near 14.2°N 136.9°E)
• Distance 1:  205 km east of PAR
• Distance 2:  1,480 km east of Bicol Region
• Distance 3: 1,715 km east of Metro Manila

• 96W will become a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 6 to 24 hours, and into a Tropical Storm (TS) by 36 to 48 hours.
• It will enter the PAR by tomorrow morning (Oct 21) and will be named locally as “Kristine“
• The Day 4-5 Forecasts shows the potential storm making landfall over Northern Cagayan on Thursday or Friday (Oct 24-25), with low Forecast Confidence (30-40%).
• This StormWatch will be replaced by a 12-hour Tropical Cyclone Advisory once it enters the PAR and becomes a Tropical Depression.

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.